🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still