Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
